Confidence men: Johnson & Trump's ratings rocket in the age of the virus
There's been widespread criticism of their lacklustre Coronavirus strategies - so why are Johnson and Trump seeing a huge spike in their approval ratings?
“The perpetrator of a confidence trick (or ‘con trick’) is often referred to as a confidence (or ‘con’) man, or con-artist.”
Make them think it’s their idea
Sometimes the origins of common phrases aren’t immediately obvious. For me at least, the term ‘con-man’ is a good example. Oddly, I only recently learnt what the ‘con’ element of the term meant. (Of course, I knew what a ‘con-man’ was - I’d just never properly interrogated the term.)
‘Con’ as in ‘con-man’ means ‘confidence’ as in ‘confidence trick’ - an attempt to defraud someone after gaining their trust. Con-men exploit and manipulate the very human traits of naiveté, compassion, vanity and self-interest to create voluntary exchanges that are not mutually beneficial. The voluntary exchange piece is critical here - and is the defining characteristic of the truly masterful con. Someone who’s been conned, will often take part willingly - and when they find out they’ve been conned, it’s all too late.
Anyway, in the early phases of the Coronavirus crisis, proven pathological liars Boris Johnson and Donald Trump are enjoying record public confidence. Their distinct flavour of populism is particularly vulnerable to this sort of a swing because of the nature of the societies they run - but this hike in ratings is by no means unique. Macron in France, Italy’s Conte and Canada’s Trudeau have also seen meaningful popularity spikes. Perhaps unintuitively, in heavily-affected Brazil, ‘strongman’, Bolsonaro, isn’t enjoying the same trend. But his own complicated political standing was already on the edge of its own crisis pre-COVID-19. Broadly speaking, though, people are behind their leaders - perhaps more than they’ve ever been - as a show of unity against a unique, novel threat to their lives and livelihoods.
Anxiety is hell of a drug
Soaring approval ratings are common in times of national crisis, and it’s often not deeply connected with the quality of the work of the leader. Usually, it’s catalysed by the well-documented, instinctive psychological reaction of a panicked and helpless population to rally around anyone that can fix the destabilisation of their group, and neutralise the looming threat to their survival.
When that behaviour is broken down, there are often clear explanations:
Citizens famously close ranks around their leaders in moments of great uncertainty or fear - abandoning political affiliation. But importantly, this isn’t generally an act of vanilla political endorsement - instead, it represents collectivised support for their own individual survival through the prism of any available leader. When rallying around a figurehead is the only ‘thing’ that can be done in the face of an enemy, the feeling of having done a thing helps transform a generalised helplessness into a collectivised safety - and a wider sense of tribal resistance. This is really well illustrated immediately during the 9/11 crisis, for example, where George W. Bush’s ratings jumped so aggressively, it looks like an error in the data.
Nothing unites people as effectively as a common enemy, and in fact, historically, the real or perceived presence of a clearly articulated common enemy can quickly build consent for acts of profound aggression. Noam Chomsky, in Manufacturing Consent, speaks at length about the necessary components of successful propaganda campaigns - one of which is a clearly-defined, shared enemy. Humans are desperate for stories - and highly receptive to simple, clear-cut hero/villain narratives. A highly contagious virus is the perfect enemy to bring together usually warring political and social factions - because it’s an indiscriminate, common social threat. In the context of a legitimate struggle, this is a good thing. It encourages cross-group co-operation, which greatly increases the chance of long-term group survival. Today, Coronavirus is the ‘other side’ and Team Humanity are ready to give it a pasting - and early in the game, Team Humanity believe in their captains.
In times of crisis, nervous populations evaluate their national leaders on very different criteria than they do in times of relative peace. It’s common for those overwhelmed by a sense of danger to judge their leaders as they judge themselves - often developing a newly contextual empathy that wasn’t relevant prior to the new catastrophe. Boris Johnson, with regular press appearances, his cartoon-style persona and especially now having shared a selfie video of himself having caught the Coronavirus, humanises a struggle that transcends regular class divisions and creates a unified feeling of public protection.
In a show of national strength, highly-critical opposition parties will sometimes suspend (or at least curtail) their attacks on the current government. There are mixed motivations for this (often to do with echoing public sentiment, and to avoid being characterised as opportunist, political point-scorers) but this gives any current government breathing room from the scrutiny that is otherwise characteristic of multi-party democratic systems. Citizens are not being drawn to their flaws, so it’s harder to make a case for their criticism.
At the belly of any collective or individual crisis is usually destabilisation caused by a catastrophic loss of control. It’s simple for leaders to gain political approval by acting decisively (even if there’s no basis or evidence behind those decisions) - and often, the more decisive and draconian the measure, the stronger the social endorsement. Simply put - people in danger need to be told precisely what to do by a hierarchical superior - and there’s a high chance they’ll not only comply, but interpret it as an act of benevolence. This act of control will replace the previous social routines and rituals that comprised their prior apparatus of control, even if only temporarily.
But these reactions don’t tend to last long. Either the crisis resolves, and citizens busy themselves with other things, or it doesn’t - and a sympathetic, on-side electorate loses patience with a crisis that is ruining their quality of life and demands a better alternative. Britain and the US are both early in the curve of Coronavirus, with Britain expected to reach peak fatality within the next three weeks - after which we should see both the transmission and fatality curves flatten steadily. The US are earlier - and are expected to have a more chaotic transmission and (much larger) fatality pattern based on their current lack of lockdown or isolation measures.
In Britain, it’ll be another 4 - 8 weeks of physical distancing and quarantining, and a likely 12 weeks before businesses are expected to return to their regular operations. But by that time, the electorate will have begun to feel the true misery of the economic consequences of Coronavirus. With more than 600,000 new claims for Universal Credit already, and an NHS struggling under the weight of the sheer volume of new patients, the question is whether raw patriotism alone is enough to keep Johnson’s approval ratings high once fatalities and unemployment have skyrocketed, and the wider novelty of a unique crisis has worn off.
For Trump, it’s also complicated. He’s approaching re-election, and his already broadly chaotic handling of the crisis will feed the energy levels of an electorate that are already highly polarised. He’s already polling consistently behind Biden - and there’s a case to say that the oncoming storm might expose his fundamental lack of ability to lead the US through a truly deadly threat - and not just a crisis of national identity. In a society that worships the economy, we might find the beginnings of a real change in US attitudes when the compromises made are responsible for widespread fatality and economic misery - especially given the US’s famously cut-throat, spectacularly expensive healthcare industry.
Long game
In post-Coronavirus Britain, there are deep questions on how the political climate will be reshaped, and how both the Conservative and Labour parties will respond to the wider shifts in the economy as it tries to reanimate. One of the largest questions is for the political left, as it continues to try to repair itself after taking a historic battering at the polls. If the Conservatives are energised by a crisis that is interpreted as masterfully handled, the left will continue to to struggle for approval. If Britain reject’s Johnson’s strategy, however - there’ll be an in. But the left will need new ideas - a new language and a new story to resonate with the Conservative voters that hammered them in January’s elections.
Have a day.
Twitter: thomas_k_r