Chaos is a ladder: Hungary's Viktor Orbán grips total political control as Coronavirus sweeps Europe
Despite new public health measures all over the world, Orbán is the first to succeed at a comprehensive, dictatorial power-grab
Coronavirus is a ladder
If history shows nothing else, it’s that chaos is a ladder. Widespread social emergencies repeatedly make it simple for ambitious, highly-motivated ideologues to jump the huge barriers specifically designed to prevent massive anti-democratic power shifts. That’s generally because in times of crisis, citizens are willing to overlook (and even actively discredit) the checks, balances and safeguards that keep functional democracies upright. But exchanging hard-earned civil liberties for a promise of security is a famous Faustian bargain that is much more difficult to reverse than it is to make in the first place. Massive new powers are an intoxicant that require a rare integrity and benevolence to then subsequently release - and generally speaking, neither of those are traits of the profiles that seek out total power in the first place.
Since the beginnings of the Coronavirus, the global political commentariat have been energetic with suggestions that such a severe economic emergency puts democracy all over the world at fresh risk of bold acts of nationalist and populist tyranny. Some societies are more prone to these shifts than others - especially ones where inequality is already rife - and particularly, societies that are in many ways, already only performative democracies. Countries all over the world have put into place strict, legally-enforceable civil control measures designed to control the spread of a disease set to cause an economic shockwave much greater than the 2008 financial crisis. Although some of these measures have been met with criticism - almost all of them have been achieved in the spirit of public safety, political co-operation and citizen endorsement.
Viktor Orbán’s indefinite state of emergency
But in the grip of the Coronavirus pandemic, Hungary’s parliament has now passed a new set of extraordinary measures that includes severe jail terms for both spreading misinformation and for leaving quarantine - and no time limit on the declared state of emergency that allows the famously nativist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán to rule by decree. The bill is profoundly authoritarian - even for a right-wing, nationalist government - and includes:
An indefinitely declared state of emergency
Rule by decree
Full parliamentary suspension
A pause on all future elections
5-year prison sentence for spreading misinformation (as determined by the government)
8-year prison sentence for leaving quarantine
Opposition parties in Hungary are currently somewhat toothless because Orbán’s Fidesz party controls a two-thirds parliamentary majority, which makes it straightforward to see right-leaning legislation through parliament. In the wake of his new laws, and perhaps the conclusion to his long-running political project, Orbán has finally risen to the position that he has spent 25 years constructing. His pathway to Prime Minister has also, incidentally, transformed him from poor student to Hungary’s richest man, media mogul and dominant political force.
Hungary will be dealing with the financial ramifications of Coronavirus for years. Broader concerns are not just at the extent of emergency power, but that the government could put forward a legal argument that a highly draconian, extended state of emergency must remain in force even post-crisis - throughout an indefinite period of time required to deploy new economic recovery measures. There’s no fixed time limit on the bill - or even any period of review - so Orbán’s mood will determine whether or not he’ll be ready to relinquish his grip on the body politic. If there’s any meaningful political challenge made, its last course of redress will only see the issue escalated to Hungary’s Constitutional Court - where famously, all 15 of its judges are Fidesz appointed nominees.
New hopes, new demonstrations
Regardless of the outcome of the Coronavirus, Orbán’s power-grab has gained global criticism due to its massive constitutional overreach. Despite an early success, if he doesn’t renege, he’ll have a battle on his hands post-crisis - particularly because of Hungary’s already troubled European Union membership and the unrest characteristic of a society already under economic stress. He’ll need to make a choice - to pursue fresh strong-arm tactics that continue to keep his grip on the political system, or face the backlash of an energised population already well familiar with a regime that is steadily becoming increasingly authoritarian. Neither are peaceful.
We’ll see profound economic consequences in dealing with Coronavirus - particularly as the world rebuilds the institutions and procedures designed to prop up global trade. But as nativist rhetoric continues to gain ground all over the world, there’s a wider question in play - which will be the next country to leverage Coronavirus as the ultimate political play - to grab the kind of power unthinkable during times of peace?
For now, Hungary says 'no power grab'. Time will determine how the government responds to calls to return to normality.
Have a day.
Twitter: thomas_k_r